Sunday, 11 April 2010

8 Golden Rules of Investing in Unit Trust


1. DO NOT borrow to invest.
2. DO NOT invest all of your money.
3. DO NOT invest money you need to use soon.
4. DO NOT get emotional and panic.
5. DO keep investing and stay invested. Invest regularly -  in good and bad times.
6. DO diversify.
7. DO take professional advices.
8. DO give your investment time to grow.

Thursday, 8 April 2010

Launch of Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund

We are pleased to announce the launch of Public Far-East Alpha-30 Fund.




PFA30F
Main Features
To achieve capital appreciation over the medium- to long-term period by investing in up to a maximum of 30 stocks listed in domestic and regional markets. 
Asset Allocation
% of NAV Equity = 75% to 98%  (Up to 98% of its NAV in  selected Far-East markets
which include South Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, India, Australia and other permitted markets.)
Target Market
Investor with aggressive risk-reward temperament and can withstand extended period of market high and low in pursuit of capital growth.
Offer Period
6 April 2010 to 26 April 2010
Issue Price
RM0.2500 per unit
Service Charge
During offer period:  Investment amount per transaction Special Service Charge
Below RM5,000 5.50%
RM5,000 to RM9,999 5.25%
RM10,000 and above 5.00%
After offer period   : Up to 5.50%
DDI
Service Charge rate of 5.25% during offer period.  (Terms and conditions applied)
Switching during offer period
Switching Transaction involving PFA30F are not allowed EXCEPT from low load units
Approved for EPF Investment
NO


Growth Potential of the fund and market update

1.       There is not a single doubt on Greater China’s growth potential, GDP growth rate for the past 10 years was in the region of 8-12%, and is most likely to continue growing in that range for the next 5 to 10 years. 2009 was a year where most countries were registering –ve GDP growth, but China GDP grew at 9%, thanks to 4 trillion yuan stimulus package!


















China GDP growth rate (%) (Source: index mundi)

Country
IMF projection of 2010 GDP growth (%)
United States
2.7
United Kingdom
1.3
Japan
1.8
China
9.6
India
7.7
Singapore
6.0
Indonesia
5.6
Thailand
4.4
Philippines
3.8
Taiwan
5.6
Hong Kong
4.4
South Korea
4.7
Australia
3.1
                Source: http://www.imf.org

 2.      2010 is a recovery year for developing and developed economies, growth in regional markets should remain underpinned in 2010 by accommodative real interest rates and resilient liquidity conditions as regional exports rebounds. Developed economies is expected to register moderate growth in 2010 amidst continued deleveraging households and unemployment rate eases in US from 10.4% in February to 9.6% in March 2010, there were 162,000 jobs created in March 2010, mainly in the service sector. Growth of regional economies is expected to outpace developed economies in 2010. As such, regional markets are expected to outperform over medium to long term due to their reasonable valuations, high savings rate, brighter economic growth prospects. 

3.       China’s exports climbed 17.7% year-on-year in December 2009 mainly driven by surged in semiconductor sales. It was the first increase in 14 months. Imports also increased 55.9% year-on-year in December. In 2009, China’s exports fell 16% and imports dropped 11.2% as compared to 2008. Trade surplus dropped to $196.1 billion. A comeback in exports shows that a global recovery is gaining momentum.

4.       The recent hike in required reserve ratio for big banks has caused to market to consolidate. The tightening in bank lending was necessary to curb property and equity speculation as well as to manage inflation expectations. With the move, China loan growth has slowed from 29% January to 25% in February. 

5.       The Chinese government also announced a few policies to control an overheating property market, it aims to lower the risk of building up an asset bubble.
a.       The government will also enhance market supervision as a way to stabilise the market and prevent the house prices in some cities to move up too fast.
b.      The government targets to increase supply of ordinary housing, support self-use homes and curb speculation.
c.       The government also imposes a sales tax on homes sold within 5 years of their purchase, increasing the time period from 2 years.

6.       In terms of valuation, Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong are trading at an attractive level, we continue to like China based on its strong estimated earnings growth and attractive evaluation of the Chinese companies. As of 2nd April, China H shares are trading at prospective P/E ratio of 11.20, which is below its average of 13.
Source: Public Mutual Market Wrap 2nd April

We continue to favor Asia market, especially the Far-East market because of its strong recovery, resilient liquidity and attractive evaluation of Chinese companies.

Monday, 5 April 2010

How much can I invest from my EPF?

Below is the formula to calculate the amount that you are eligible to withdraw

Amount Eligible to withdraw = (Account 1 - Basic Savings) x 20%

The table below shows the Basic Savings at various ages:


































Example 1: John has RM100,000 in account 1 and he is 30 year old now, calculate the 1st, 2nd and 3rd withdrawal amount assuming that John contributes RM3,000 to his account 1 every month.

1st withdraw = (100,000 - 18,000) x 20% = 82,000 x 20% = RM16,400
New Account 1 Balance after 1st withdraw = 100,000 - 16,400 = 83,600
Account 1 Balance after 3 months = 83,600 + (3 x 3,000) = 92,600
2nd withdraw = (92,600 - 18,000) x 20% = 82,000 x 20% = RM14,920
New Account 1 Balance after 2nd withdraw = 92,600 - 14,920 = 77,680
Account 1 Balance after 3 months = 77,680 + (3 x 3,000) = 86,680


3rd withdraw = (86,680 - 18,000) x 20% = 68,680 x 20% = RM13,736
Investor can continue to withdraw from EPF account 1 as long as his account 1 balance is more than basic savings for his age.










Why should I invest with my EPF?

Let's have a look at EPF dividend rates for the past 5 years, it has been in the region of 4++% to 5++% for the pass 5 years, in fact for the past 10 years, the rate has been hovering around the same region.


Dividend Rates






statistik+kadardividen+bi+graf2008.gif
statistik+kadardividen+bi+chart2008.gif
Source: EPF Website


No doubt, the EPF dividend is much better than fixed deposit rate, however, it may not be able to beat inflation rate, if you want to know more, you may read my post Why should we invest and get more than 5% per annum?

In another perspective, it is perhaps unfortunate that for most of us, EPF savings is probably our biggest savings, and if you are comfortable with relying solely on your EPF savings for your retirement, do read my post A quick way to estimate how long my EPF fund can last?

If you understand that you need to make your money work harder, welcome to the club :D

How much can we expect to gain by investing using our EPF fund into Unit Trust?
Assuming that you are able to withdraw RM100,000 from your EPF account 1 in stages and you are at age 35, and your investment can clock 10% or 12% per annum, the table below shows the difference

Capital: RM100,000

Age
EPF (5%)
Investment (10%)
Investment (12%)
40
127,628
161,051
176,234
45
162,889
259,374
310,585
50
207,893
417,724
547,357
55
265,330
672,750
964,629
60
338,635
1,083,471
1,700,006

To find out the amount you are eligible to invest through EPF account 1, please refer to my post "How much can I invest from my EPF?"

Sunday, 4 April 2010

Rule of 72



I came across a fast and easy to estimate the number of years it takes to double or halve your fund given the return of investment in percentage and thought some of you might find it helpful.

Example 1) Given that I invest into an investment vehicle that can give me returns of 12% per annum, how long does it take for my investment fund to double?
Number of Years to double = 72/12 = 6 years

Example 2) Given that I would like to double my fund in 5 years, how much returns my investment has to clocked for me to double my fund in 5 years?
Annual return = 72/5 = 14.4%

Why should we invest and get more than 5% p.a.?



If you live in Klang Valley like I do, I'm sure you are feeling the pinch with ongoing increase in prices of food, grocery, petrol, etc. The government is declaring that the inflation rate is in the region of 2-4% per annum, but mind you, the inflation rate published was for the whole of Malaysia, inflation rate in the city is definitely higher than the rural area. Below are some data collected and published by ???, suggesting that inflation rate for middle class is in the range of 5-7%.

Now if you feel that your money is very safe with the bank fixed deposit, think again. If fixed deposit rate is at 2.5% and inflation is at 5%, will the value of your money go up or down? If you plan to place all your retirement fund in fixed deposit, chances are 20 to 30 years from now when you retire, you will find that the value of your retirement fund has gone down the drain, easily depreciated by 30%-50%, no?

From another perspective, imagine that Mr. A and Mr. B have a goal of accumulating RM1,000,000 before they retire, say 25 years from now since most people only started saving / investing at 30 year old. Say Mr. A invests into a conservative instrument that can give him 5% per annum and Mr. B invests into an instrument that is more risky but in a long run will give him 12% per annum, how much do you think Mr. A and Mr. B need to invest now in order to accumulate RM1,000,000 in 25 years?

For Mr. A, key the function "=PV(5%,25,0,1000000)" into an excel cell and you will get RM295,302
For Mr. B, key the function "=PV(12%,25,0,1000000)" into an excel cell and you will get RM58,823
Now, i believe there are not many Mr. B around who has RM58,823 to start investing at age 30, not to even mention Mr. A with RM295,302?


Now, there is no free lunch in the world, there is a lot to learn in order to get 10% or 12% per annum, but what we could deduce from this is that it is probably worth spending your time learining how to invest and get that kind of return, the journey may not be as painful as people around you may put it, speak to people who has successfully invested rather people who fail and are ignorant to learn from it. We are living in a world now whereby saving into the bank will no longer make you rich nor comfortable.

A quick way to estimate how long my EPF can last?

It is very unfortunate that not many Malaysians including myself have a million in our EPF account when we retire yet we need about million if they would like to retire in the same lifestyle. Thus, many whom i speak to either continue to work (get a part time job) or forced to change their lifestyle, living within their means. Is that what we want in our retirement?
I find the following very useful when i want to quickly demonstrate to my friends that their EPF would run dry very quickly. Here is how

Assuming that i have RM300,000 in my EPF account 1 and my current monthly expenses is RM5,000, how long would my EPF last if i'm retiring with the same lifestyle? Now 300k seems to be quite a big sum right? Let see...


Annual Living Expenses = RM5,000 x 12 = RM60,000
Number of years to finish spending my EPF savings = RM300,000 / RM60,000 = 5 years
Imagine that we are 55 and finally realized that EPF savings could only last a few years, how else could we coupe? Do a part time job? Depending on our children?

How much do I need for my RETIREMENT?


Knowing how much you need for your retirement is the first step in retirement planning, your first step to financial success!

You can use some of the online calculators below to estimate your retirement needs or if you are interested to learn how the calculation works (in the case where you want to share this with your friends), i'll take you through here.


My Retirement Needs

1. Find out your Retirement Age (Think about when you would like to retire or become financial free, at what age)?

2. Find out your Monthly Expenses (Think about the lifestyle you want to enjoy when you retire, how much does that kind of lifestyle cost now on a monthly basis)?


Retirement Needs (RM) = Annual Expenses x Years in Retirement x Inflation factor

Annual Expenses = Monthly Expenses x 12
Years in Retirement = (75 - Retirement Age) i.e. Assuming that we are leaving to heaven at age 75
Inflation Factor := The Month Expenses is in today's monetary terms, we need to take inflation in the picture in order to get a more accurate number. Basically, in order to buy what you can buy with a ringgit today, you may need a ringgit fifty cents in 10 years to buy the same thing because of inflation. 


If you do not want to go through tedious calculation to get inflation factor and are okay to assume 5% inflation rate, use 1.63 as inflation factor if you are going to retire in 10 years, use 2.08 for 15 years, use 2.65 for 20 years, use 3.39 for 25 years, use 4.32 for 30 years. See below for the calculation.


Calculate Inflation Factor using simple calculator
You need two variables to calculate inflation factor
1) Inflation rate (assuming 5%)
2) Years to retirement = Retirement Age - Current Age (asssuming 20)
Step 1 = Key in '1' into a simple calculator, 
Step 2 = Key in '+', key in '5', key in '%'
Do step 2 for 20 times and press the '=' key to get inflation factor


CNN Retirement Needs Calculator
































Prudential "What's Your Retirement Number" Calculator




















Warren Buffet's principles of success

"I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute" - Warren Buffett
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